In the multifamily game, there’s a critical balance between pushing rents and keeping your occupancy high. Get too aggressive with rent bumps, and you could create unnecessary vacancy. Play it too safe, and you leave cash flow on the table.
This balance becomes even more delicate during the slow leasing season—typically winter—when demand naturally cools. And in today’s market, that challenge is amplified by new supply and shifting tenant behavior.
Understanding how to manage occupancy in the off season is essential if you want to protect your Net Operating Income (NOI) and maximize long-term value.
Let’s walk through how seasoned operators get it right.
The Economics Behind Rental Pricing
Economists have a name for the tension between rent growth and vacancy: price elasticity of demand.
It measures how sensitive consumers (in this case, renters) are to price changes. When demand is elastic, even a small price increase can lead to significant drop-offs in interest. When it’s inelastic, renters stay put despite increases.
So, what about apartments?
Apartment demand is less elastic than something like groceries because moving is inconvenient, disruptive, and expensive. But that doesn’t mean it’s immune. Especially during slower seasons, tenants are far more likely to push back—or walk—if the pricing gets too aggressive.
Seasonal Leasing Cycles Are Back
During COVID, rental demand was strong year-round. But now, seasonality has returned.
Winter months—particularly Q1—are slower across most markets. And at the same time, we’re seeing a surge in new apartment supply across the country.
In Q3 2023 alone, we saw over 400,000 new units delivered—the highest since the 1980s. This trend will continue into 2024 and beyond.
That means one thing for apartment owners and operators: increased competition. And many new builds are offering aggressive lease-up pricing, driving down rents in overbuilt markets like Austin and Phoenix.
You cannot manage pricing in a vacuum. You have to be aware of both market conditions and seasonal patterns.
What the Data Tells Us About Rent Increases
Let’s talk numbers.
In one case study, we observed that rent increases of up to $40 per month had little impact on renewals. But the moment pricing crossed the $50 threshold, vacancy jumped. That’s price elasticity in action.
Now apply that to a real property.
Say you own a 240-unit complex. You’re evaluating renewal options in January—a slow month.
Option A: modest $15 increase
Option B: aggressive $50 increase
If that $50 increase causes just 10–15% of tenants to move out, the cost of turns, lost rent, and leasing commissions can wipe out months of gains. Worse, it can create persistent vacancy if your pricing is no longer competitive in a cooling market.
Protecting NOI in the Off Season
The goal isn’t to avoid raising rents—it’s to do it strategically.
There’s a time to push. There’s a time to hold.
Winter is typically the time to defend occupancy, even if it means tempering your rent growth goals temporarily. Maintaining high occupancy and avoiding turnover during slower months protects your income and your long-term returns.
Remember: vacancy doesn’t just hurt cash flow. It impacts property valuation, investor distributions, and your ability to refinance or sell.
Strategies for Smarter Lease Management
So how do experienced operators stay one step ahead?
1. Watch the Data Like a Hawk
Monitor lease-up pricing on comps, track showing-to-lease conversion rates, and keep an eye on new inventory hitting your submarket.
Your pricing decisions should be informed by what’s happening now, not what worked six months ago.
2. Use Expiration Management
This is one of the most powerful (and underutilized) strategies in property management.
Expiration management means strategically setting lease end dates so that the bulk of your vacancies come due during peak leasing season—typically spring and summer.
Example: Instead of letting a lease end in December, offer a 10- or 14-month term that ends in April or May. This gives you a better chance of filling the unit quickly and at a higher rent.
3. Incentivize Renewals
If you’re operating in a competitive market or slow season, consider adding incentives for renewals—like carpet cleaning, minor upgrades, or small gift cards.
Even a $100 renewal bonus is often cheaper than a turn and 4 weeks of vacancy.
4. Avoid “One-Size-Fits-All” Increases
Blanket rent increases are risky, especially in a volatile market.
Instead, segment your renewal strategy based on unit type, tenant history, and market data. A well-performing long-term tenant in a two-bedroom corner unit might warrant a lower increase to ensure retention, while a studio in high demand can be pushed more.
Final Thoughts from Rod
In this business, every point of occupancy matters. Every dollar of rent matters. But knowing when to push and when to hold the line is what separates average operators from exceptional ones.
Managing occupancy in the off season isn’t about fear—it’s about strategy.
Use the data. Know your market. Plan your lease expirations. And always protect your NOI like your future depends on it—because it does.
If you want to maximize long-term value in your multifamily portfolio, it’s not just about buying right. It’s about operating with excellence.
You’ve got this.
— Rod
