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As part of our ongoing series of sub-market analysis, today we will discuss Columbus, OH. We have looked at a few deals in Columbus and generally like the area, but there are changes on the horizon that could make investing in some parts of the city less attractive. What we look for in a sub-market: |
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Columbus, OH Statistics: Columbus, OH has been in the news after Intel announced it would build a $20B chip plant in New Albany. It is expected to create 3,000 manufacturing and 7,000 construction jobs. In addition, several hospital developments are underway with significant investments. The Ohio State Wexner 820-room hospital is under construction at a cost of $1.9B and is expected to open in 2026. The new Grant Medical Center, a two hundred and seventy thousand square foot hospital is being built for $400M, and OhioHealth is expanding the Dublin Methodist Hospital with an investment of $200M. Other positive employment trends include Amgen opening a new facility in 2024, Star Charging just started rolling out EV charging stations, and Ease Logistics just opened a new HQ with 700 employees. In 2023, the city added 14K new jobs, a 1.2% increase, the highest in the state. Columbus is the 14th largest city in the US with 900K people. Population growth has been slowing since 2020 and ended 2023 up 0.5%. The majority of new residents are new international immigrants. Thirty three percent of citizens have a college degree. The median household income is $63K while the median house costs $290K, and the average rent is just over $1,300 a month (grew 1.5% YOY). Tenants would need to earn $52K to afford the typical apartment, so this indicates that rental housing is affordable. However, if you read the news, many complain that there is not enough affordable housing. To own the typical house, the buyer’s income would need to be $100K ($2,500 a month cost), which is well above the median income. This helps explain why 56% of residents rent. The city has a very diverse job base, with healthcare jobs accounting for 16%, retail 14%, manufacturing 10%, financial 10%, transportation 9%, IT 6%, professional services 6%, lodging 6%, education 4% and government 3%. With all the development going on, the outlook for employment opportunity looks very good. And with population growth somewhat muted, wages should continue to rise, which supports higher rent growth. A vibrant employment outlook is critical for multifamily, and Columbus is in a very good position. Columbus has attracted investors interested in developing and buying existing multifamily properties. Marcus and Millichap rank Columbus as one of the top tertiary markets for deals closing in the US. This is not a hidden gem, and competition for deals is fierce. Columbus ranks third in the Midwest for new apartment construction in 2023, adding around 1,500 units each quarter for the past year, and there are currently 9K new apartments under construction. Remember, the city grew by 4,500 residents in the past year, but they added 6,000 apartments with more on the horizon. This has resulted in an average vacancy of 5.7%, up 80BPs YOY. We believe vacancy rates, depending on neighborhood, will continue to rise as net absorption falls with the pending development. CRIME: One of the biggest concerns for investing in Columbus is crime. The city is one of the most dangerous in the country, statistically. It ranks 5/100 which means 95% of other cities in the US are safer. Residents have a 40/1000 chance of being a victim of a violent or property crime. The city has one of the highest rates of stolen cars in the country. |
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Some things to consider: We like the job picture in Columbus, which is one of the most important factors we look at when evaluating a submarket. However, we are concerned about new supply and a new zoning proposal recently submitted to the City Council for review. The mayor is proposing to re-write archaic zoning regulations for some of the older, more established neighborhoods in the city. The changes loosen density restrictions, enabling developers to build on parcels that, under current zoning, can accommodate only 12K housing units but if passed would increase the potential to 88K units. The new zoning also simplifies the process for development and makes it easier for builders to get approval. Investors should understand what areas could be impacted by the proposed change and factor in the potential for a material increase in new apartments. We do like Columbus, but not all of Columbus. We like the job situation, taxes and insurance, affordability of rents and lack of affordable single-family homes. When we evaluate a deal in the city, we have to get comfortable with the local crime situation, new construction in the surrounding area and now, how the area will be impacted by potential zoning changes. |
